News: October 2000

October 31, 2000—Halloween
About 10 trick-or-treaters in this mostly retired community, leaving plenty of Baby Ruths, Snickers, and other assorted candies for Erin, Bret, and me. That's probably not a good thing. Hehe.

October 30, 2000
The State of California's DMV, forced by a loss in the case of Jordan v. Department of Motor Vehicles (1999), today returned our $300 "Smog Impact Fee" along with our "Smog Impact Fee Penalty" and some $68 in interest. I'm not sure if today's happiness was equal to the annoyance I felt in having to pay all the money out in the first place back in 1997, but I'll deal with it (all the way to the bank).

Look for a new opinion piece calling the presidential election on a state-by-state basis. Yes, I'm that confident of my ability to predict the electorate. Indeed, the only thing I'm more confident of is this site's readers being completely indifferent to whether I score well or poorly. Good call, readers.

October 28, 2000
Erin and I remain enormously grateful to have been able to share in this special wedding day for our friends Joe and Carol. I served as one of five groomsmen, all of whom plus Joe looked outstanding in our tuxedos (if I do say so myself). Carol, as one might have expected, looked gorgeous. I'm sure I'm not alone in looking forward to seeing all the wedding pictures.

In the midst of the picture-taking, Erin, Ginger, and Matt, the Best Man, got the chance to help decorate the interior of the "wedding mobile." Our friend Bruce—who made a special flight in from the East Coast for the event—served as a groomsman (and dispenser of cinnamon flavor Altoids, my new favorite breath mint).

The wedding itself was a fun return for Erin and I to the University of Portland's Christ the Teacher Chapel, a place where I don't believe I'd been since our own marriage there some six years and three months ago. Outside of the beautiful and moving wedding vows themselves, my favorite part would have to be the section where, after the kiss between the newly married husband and wife, the groomsmen and bridesmaids all held up index cards with Olympics-style scores ranging from 9.25 to 10. (I'm certain that 9.25 was from the Russian judge.)

The reception party—and I do mean party—was held on the top floor of the Edgefield Power Station. Great food, plenty of dancing, and a wonderful time had by all. Special kudos to Matt, who as Best Man made (and was roundly applauded for) an excellent toast to the bride and groom.

Congratulations once again to Joe and Carol, and our continuing best wishes for a wonderful life together.

October 26, 2000
Recent presidential polling has really shown me the error of my ways when, after the first presidential debate a few weeks ago, I declared Al Gore the next president of the United States. Admittedly, I fell victim to one of the classic blunders (see The Princess Bride for the first two), which is never assume that outright idiocy and incompetence is a barrier to public office. I remain steadfast in my conviction that Gore brutalized Bush in debates 1 and 3, but as I've taken to saying in the last few months, who the hell cares what I think? Hehe.

So on to the polling: Gore has recaptured Illinois (45 to 35 +/- 4) and given that all polls in the last month show him with at least a 5 point lead, I feel safe in saying that Illinois is his for good. Unfortunately, California is no longer the safe bet it once was (which is why President Clinton is headed there to campaign for Gore). Latest poll: 44 to 39 (+/- 3.5) which is a drop from the commanding 48 to 39 cushion Gore previously enjoyed. Florida also remains tight at 49 to 45 (+/- 4) Gore, but I think it will stay in the Gore column since all polls in the last month favor the Democrat. It's pretty darn close, though.

Here in Oregon, the latest polling gives Bush a 4 point lead (45 to 41 +/- 4), the consequence of third-party candidate Ralph Nader's huge 10 percent showing. Since presumably these are almost all Gore votes otherwise, I feel confident in predicting that Bush will take Oregon unless Nader support drops markedly. I've never felt such pride in being an Oregonian.

October 25, 2000
Tonight's Citizen Police Academy covered Peer Court/Youth Services and Drug Enforcement/Street Crimes. The Peer Court is designed as an alternative for minor-league first-time juvenile offenders. The police component of the court is limited to officer testimony (the program is actually run by the Boys' & Girls' Clubs). Although a real lawyer acts as judge and the "trial" takes place in real courtrooms, the juvenile jury is under pretty strict control. (No death penalty for shoplifting! Hehe.) For starters, the defendant has already pled guilty and agreed to enter the Peer Court system in return for having his record expunged. So all the Peer Court is really doing is figuring out the best way to rehabilitate this particular teenager. It's still a worthwhile process and all, and I'm sure the offender is probably more responsive to hearing "don't do that" from other teens versus a bunch of middle-aged fogeys like me.

As I've mentioned in past weeks, Salem is a High Intensity Drug Traffic Area, meaning when it comes to dispensing Mexican crank to the Northwest nobody beats the Cherry City. Lucky us. Anyway, the drug enforcement team has expanded in the last week to cover an area ranging from Salem to Woodburn and acquired federal assistance on top of it all.

We watched some video of drug houses, and the squalor was the same I remembered from our lovely days managing apartments in downtown Portland when we had a crack dealer up on third floor. It gets harder to be a Libertarian about stuff like this when you see the impact it has on not only the user, but also on his/her significant other, family, friends, children, etc. According to the officer, heroin, LSD, meth are all huge and use is increasing, a number borne out by fatalities per year statistics.

He touched on the issue of prostitution briefly, saying that there are about 40 regular streetwalkers in Salem, all of whom are heroin addicts and prostitute to pay for their habit. I asked about HIV/AIDS testing and apparently it is mandatory for those convicted, but the results are confidential. He did say that hepatitis is rampant. Would the situation of these women be improved by legalizing and regulating prostitution? I have no idea, but I'm not sure it could be much worse than it is. That's a Libertarian argument I might buy, if anyone is so inclined to argue it. (Feel free to email.)

October 24, 2000
I've posted a QuickTime 4 movie of the February LAN party at http://homepage.mac.com/tydavison/iMovieTheater.html. This particular file is optimized for 28.8k modems which is another way of saying that while the audio quality is fairly decent, the video stinks to high heaven. I'll just start right now by apologizing to those of you with a 56k or better connection, because it's not going to be pretty for you folks. But that's the sort of compromise you make when you take a 350 MB QuickTime file and compress it down to 1 MB for 28.8k transfer. If anybody with a faster connection would like me to post a version with better video, send me an email, and I'll see what I can do. Thanks.

October 22, 2000
Matt and I drove up to Portland and joined Dennis, Charlie and Josh in celebrating Joe and the impending conclusion of his life as a single man. It was a Bachelor Party in high style with drinking, darts, pool, conversation (best described here as "man talk") and general laughter and enjoyment. As the designated driver I even got to drive Joe's Sable station wagon, a surprisingly nimble car given that it's practically the length of two football fields. Matt, Joe, Dennis, and I returned to Dennis' apartment and with his gracious okay proceeded to crash on the floor for the night. (Thanks, Dennis!)

Many congratulations to Joe, who soon leaves the single life for that better state of being known as marriage. (And many thanks to Carol for taking him there! Hehe.)

October 21, 2000
Fire Arms Training Simulation (aka FATS) day with the Citizens Police Academy. Take a Beretta 9mm modified to shoot only a beam of light. Give it to some yahoo like me and stand him in front of a huge video screen which displays various police training scenarios. Watch said yahoo shriek like a little girl and just about wet himself when armed bad guys suddenly appear and open fire. Imagine the shock when aforementioned yahoo empties his clip in record time, scoring 3 lethal hits, 2 non-lethal hits, and 3 misses. Bad guy bastards shouldn't have frightened me.

Second time through the system, a knife-wielding drunk gets up off a park bench and looks menacingly in my direction. Despite repeated shouts to drop the knife, our transient friend makes a move and lunges after my partner. I fire once, and not to toot my own horn, but one shot it all it took.

Despite enjoying this life-size video game, there can really be no understating just how nerve-wracking the whole thing was. Most all of us were terribly worried about shooting the wrong person or not reacting well. For my part, my reaction times where a touch long, but my accuracy was good. Regardless, I can easily say that this simulation alone would be sufficient to convince me to never pursue a career in law enforcement were that a consideration (which it is not).

October 20, 2000
Erin and I watched High Fidelity, the likeable John Cusack's latest. For a movie that I wanted to dig, that was well-acted, and that had such promise, it really wasn't as engaging as I expected.

The biggest problem for me is that as good a job as Cusack does, I couldn't relate to his character, Rob Gordon. Rob is funny, self-loathing, conflicted, a bit of jerk, and rather superficial. (I'm hoping the only quality I share is "funny.") Gordon is also poor, verbally abusive, and unfaithful. It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or two hours of movie time) to figure out why he can't make a long-term relationship work.

Nonetheless, this isn't a bad movie. There's plenty to think about; Cusack talks straight to the camera so often and at such length that the sheer volume of issues raised by his monologues could, if written down, fill libraries. It's not the most successful of techniques ultimately (since it by definition violates the dictum of "show don't tell"), but there are also some wonderful lines that result. My favorite, by Rob:

Should I bolt every time I get that feeling in my gut when I meet someone new? Well, I've been listening to my gut since I was 14 years old, and frankly speaking, I've come to the conclusion that my guts have shit for brains.

So I think we're looking at about a 7 out 10 for High Fidelity. I wouldn't call it a must-see, but neither is it all that bad.

October 18, 2000
This weeks' Citizen Police Academy covered Traffic Enforcement and Internal Affairs, the latter being rather dry. So, here's Traffic Enforcements highlights:

All seven of the Traffic Enforcement guys are on motorcycles. Five of these are Kawasakis, two of these BMWs. The Kawasakis tend to shudder at high speeds and are all being phased out in favor of BMWs.
Most traffic accidents in Salem are rear-enders, usually caused by a driver not paying attention.
Yes, they would ban cell phone usage while driving if it were up to them.
Most common traffic infraction (other than speeding): Ignoring street markings. Crossing solid lines is very commonly a Class B infraction which equals a $175 ticket.
A few weeks ago, the Chief of Police said that the Traffic guys would cite their own mothers for speeding or traffic violations. The Traffic guys heartily agreed this was true.
They use both radar and laser guns to take speed and distance measurements. We even went out and took laser gun measurements ourselves. Very slick little $4000 guns. Impossible to subvert, too, because the laser operates at the speed of light. Any warning device in the car can't possibly warn an offender in time; all it will tell them is "you've just got a ticket."
The Traffic guys usually do not cite for speeding unless the violation is 15 MPH over the posted speed. There are exceptions, though, particularly in residential and school zones.
The number of fatal accidents has dropped in recent years (from 15 in 1995 to 4 in 1999). We're at 6 fatalities this year, however.
Alcohol is a factor in about 75 percent of all driving accidents.

Prior to class, Dave stopped by for the afternoon, and we chatted a bit this, that, and the other thing. He actually arrived just as Mom and I were finishing up a multi-hour review of Adobe Photoshop 5.5. Mom's taking a class in the program and wanted a few tips on selecting objects and the like. I was more than happy to share what limited knowledge I have. Frankly, I'm looking forward to learning things from her class, too, when we get together next time.

Apple announced earnings of $108 million for the quarter, below the revised estimate for $110 million, and their stock has sunk to about 16 3/4 in after hours trading. Given the dynamics of their situation, I expect that their next fiscal quarter will be a little rough as well (though I still expect a profit). Nonetheless, I thought this stock was a steal at 25. I think it is the bargain of a lifetime in the 16-17 range, and I plan to add more stock to my portfolio tomorrow if it remains at that level.

October 17, 2000
Having listened to the debate on radio and watched a tape of the debate on TV, I cannot begin to comprehend political pundits who say that the Gore v. Bush president debate was a draw. Like the first debate, Gore dominated the stage, and Bush looked weak, confused, ill-at-ease, and "unpresidential" by comparison. Never mind that Bush can't string three sentences together without mangling verb-noun agreement, this was a blow out.

How much the debates matter in the scheme of things remains to be seen, but polls are very tight in most states at this point. Gore's "solid" block of states has dropped dramatically, and were the election held today—if polling is correct—he would not win. At the same time, the electorate is hugely ambivalent, and by some reports up to 25 percent of likely voters are still undecided.

With the death of the Democratic governor of Missouri who was running for a Senate seat, the Demos hopes of regaining control of the Senate have virtually disappeared. It looks unlikely that they will control the House, which means a Bush presidency would amount to the passage of a huge number of Republican initiatives. Given the track record of the Republican congressional leadership, I can't help but think this would be a terrible thing for the country.

October 15, 2000
End of the six weeks so it's a day of grades, grades, grades. Dad was over in the evening as is his Sunday night tradition. So between him, Erin, and me we got something of a production line going. I'm sure Dad and I will try to unionize soon. Demand double the wages or something. (Which, in case anyone's missing the joke, would still be zero.)

I had an idea for an Oregon Ballot Initiative this evening after reading about tax activist Bill Sizemore's increasingly powerful grip on state politics. Essentially, my idea is ballot measure would raise the signature requirement for any initiative petition which amends the Oregon Constitution. So much of Sizemore (and others) do nowadays is attempt to throw utter crap into state constitution where it does not belong instead of into the Oregon Revised Statutes where it also really doesn't belong either but if you're going to have it makes sense to put it. (Everybody got that?)

There was a recent initiative to raise the signature requirement for all ballot measures which failed (which is a shame), but applied to all measures, not just constitutional amendments like mine would. I consider this the first step in curbing Sizemore's power, and I think it's essential.

Ultimately, I would confess that my desire in this regard also springs from the philosophy that democracy in its purest form is a really, really bad idea, and the United States is a republic for a very good reason. Perhaps I'll go on about this some time if I'm feeling like committing political suicide.

The other problem as I see it—Dennis and I discussed just this thing this evening—is that the legislature continues to punt its responsibility and refer measure after measure to the voters. Granted, part of the problem is that term-limits has left us with a consistent flood of unqualified and/or novice lawmakers. Nonetheless, we elect representatives to study the issues and make the tough choices. Somebody should kick these people in the rear and tell them to do their jobs.

Ok. I'll go crawl back under my rock now.

October 14, 2000
Erin and I headed out for dinner at J James, a restaurant that probably qualifies as Salem's version of upscale dining. I had the steak, Erin had the lamb. Hers was better, but both were excellent, and we had no complaints other than perhaps that the live jazz trio made conversation a little difficult at times. Cost was reasonable at about $60 for two (including tip, excluding wine).

The presidential race continues to tighten, with latest state-by-state polling dropping Gore to 194 solid electoral votes and 154 solid votes for Bush. That's a lot of toss-up states left over.

The recent Republican campaign to paint Gore as untrustworthy is, as I've said before, the absolute right track for them. Bush loses on both issues and competence, and Gore's long been vulnerable on "character" (which is, notably, the same type of campaign that Bob Dole should have run against Clinton in 1996).

The question of this election has always been competence versus character (I'm voting for the criminal instead of the idiot), and I for one think the outcome will be fascinating. Garr contends that no matter who is elected we'll be pining for the days of Clinton within 6 months. Personally, I doubt that very much if Gore is elected. If Bush wins, well, the pining starts November 8.

October 13, 2000
I traveled up to Portland to hang with Garr and ended up returning home at 2 AM. I played a couple of new songs for him, and he was his usual charitable self in critiquing them. Although a lot of my musical endeavors have gone on the back burner since we bought the house, I'm hoping to have an amp for the Roland XP-80 keyboard early next year so that I can start practicing with other musicians and begin recording songs.

Thanks to both Garr and Terri for dinner at Kennedy School.

October 12, 2000
Last night's presidential debate was, far more than the first one, a real snooze-fest. With Gore unconvincingly trying to behave like something other than the alpha male he is, the first hour had virtually no clash whatsoever. As debate people will tell you, that's not really a debate; it's dueling monologues, and it's boring as all get out. Gore scored points later on when he attacked Bush's record in Texas (last in health care for families, 49th for women and children, worst pollution in the US), but way too much of the night was like watching a muzzled doberman.

By contrast, Bush only had to appear presidential, something even I could accomplish given an hour without any significant disagreement from my opponent. In strict debating terms, Gore was the easy winner. In the court of public opinion, I think this was a big Bush victory.

Latest presidential polling continues to see a tightening in the race (which is normal). Both gore and Bush have dropped states previously considered "safe" and seen them move into the "toss-up" category. For both candidates, the defections are significant in the electoral count.

For Gore, Pennsylvania has moved from 49 to 37 in his favor to 42 to 36 (+/- 4 margin of error). That's still enough that Gore should carry the state. Similarly, Minnesota has tightened from 48-40 to 45-39 Gore (+/- 3). Still likely to go Gore, but in any state with a pro wrestler as governor, I think it's fair to say that all bets are off.

For Bush, the polling numbers reflect the same tightening in states where he leads. Georgia's gone from 52-36 to 47-41 (+/- 4.5). I have no doubt that Bush will carry Georgia, though. Indiana—long a Republican stronghold (to the extent that they voted Dan Quayle their senator)—has moved from 49-42 to 46-43 (+/- 4). I can't fathom Gore carrying Indiana, though. It just seems like far too conservative a state. But maybe I'm wrong. North Carolina, another conservative state, also shows Bush's lead dropping. Old poll was 46 to 39; new poll 47 to 44 (+/- 4).

Gore still holds a strong majority in electoral votes, 205 to 129, but the race is tightening to the extent that if third-party candidate Ralph Nader draws significant support in any toss-up states, it could influence the outcome. I consider that possibility highly unlikely, but what do I know? I'm just a politically-interested observer with a web site. I still think that Gore, barring a huge blunder, will be the next president.

[I will note that I think Bush's recent "you can't trust him" efforts against Gore are absolutely the right way to go in terms of message. Bush will never win on policy, but the character issue ("no controlling legal authority" should be a Bush campaign mantra) is a big winner.]

Last night's Citizens Police Academy featured an hour talk with the district attorney, Dale Penn. My only regret is that his talk wasn't double in length, because we really only lightly touched many of the legal issues involved with the criminal justice system. Probably the biggest two revelations for me were (1) the extensive nature of the prosecution process and (2) just how many criminal bastards are out on the streets due to lack of jail space.

Innocent until proven guilty is an excellent and essential standard, but I was surprised at just how many people had to be convinced of a person's guilt before a felony case goes to trial. There's the arresting officer, the DA, the arrangement judge, the Grand Jury, and the final jury or judge, all of whom have to on some level believe in a person's guilt before a conviction takes place. (Which, don't get me wrong, is a good thing.)

Marion County Jail has 528 inmates at present. Penn said we could easily fill 700 beds, but lack of jail space turns most criminals back onto the street almost immediately. Violent criminals will be held, but stealing a car, for example, is at the point where you will likely not even serve jail time if caught and convicted. There's something wrong about that, and while I can appreciate that true crime reduction begins in the educational system (and with parents—hello!), I certainly wonder if we shouldn't be finding a means of incarcerating all criminals who deserve it.

The second part of the class was on the K-9 Unit. The officers who handle these European-breed German Shepherds have to be certified with their dog by the Oregon Police Canine Association. This means passing, dog and handler together, an obedience course designed to simulate police activities in real-world conditions. We observed several of these demonstrations and came away impressed. Though the dogs are expensive—about $18,000 each after training, etc. is added up—they can clearly accomplish tasks that officers can't otherwise.

One final point: When on duty, these dogs are not for petting by strangers. (Hehe)

October 11, 2000
I stumbled across a fun little web site that ya'll might enjoy. It's called 3BP.com [Note: Site no longer in service] and it features headlines, photos, and video of real-life stupid human tricks (so to speak). Here's a couple of my favorite examples:

Well, you get the idea. This stuff isn't exactly showing off genius at work. Makes for pretty amusing reading, though.

Big newspaper articles in both The Oregonian and the Statesman-Journal about Measure 94, the initiative to overturn the mandatory minimum sentences for violent criminals (Ballot Measure 11, passed a few years ago).

I especially liked the bit about how the woman leading the soft-on-crime charge that is Measure 94 is doing so because her kid is in jail on a Measure 11 crime and overturning it might get him out early. It's touching story of motherly love until you read the bit about him nearly killing somebody with a baseball bat and the rest of his extensive criminal history.

Truth is Measure 11 only deals with so-called "personal" crimes like murder, rape, incest, assault, etc. So anyone sentenced under Measure 11 is almost by definition a violent criminal. In my book, violent criminal belong in jail.

With some crimes, Measure 11 dramatically boosted time served. In the case of rape, for example, it used to be that a person convicted of Rape 1 in Oregon could be out of prison in under 3 years. Under Measure 11 that rapist will now serve a minimum sentence of 8 years and 4 months. Personally I'd be an advocate of castration, but 8 years, 4 months will do for starters. (Yes, I'm being facetious. A little.)

Oregonians, please vote "NO" on Measure 94. (See Crime Victims United for more information.)

October 10, 2000
More politics: I watched Gov. John Kitzhaber and tax activist Bill Sizemore debate Oregon's Measure 91 which would allow full deductibility for federal taxes on Oregon tax returns. It would also cut the state revenue by about $1 billion per year. The debate was notable in that both participants very clearly laid out their philosophical differences. Kitzhaber "won" the debate in traditional terms, but Sizemore was very effective in articulating his position and perspective.

Speaking of which let me say formally that I will never vote for a Sizemore-sponsored tax measure regardless of content. I'm that certain I disagree with his philosophy—not to mention that I don't trust him. I'm sure it's a fallacy of some kind to make such a blanket statement, but right now I consider Sizemore the most dangerous man in Oregon.

I mean, I'm no fan of big government, but I'm very much in favor of a progressive tax code. The wealthy should pay more in taxes. Taxing everyone the same is just loopy. (For example, $1000 in taxes means something different to a person making $10,000 a year versus someone making $100,000 a year.) And if you have more financial success in this society, you should owe more to it.

In the case of Measure 91, let me reiterate several of Kitzhaber's points against it:

Measure 91 helps only the wealthy. The top 7 percent will see huge tax cuts while those in the middle class will see nothing but a huge reduction in state services. The poor, who would not receive any tax cut, would also see many of the state social services they rely upon cut down. This measure is about as regressive as you can get, something both Kitzhaber and Sizemore agreed upon. Sizemore just doesn't see a problem with it.
The measure is poorly written to the point that we don't know if it's retroactive (which may wipe out the tax refund frequently enjoyed by Oregonians (aka the kicker), and we don't know if it applies to corporations. If it passes, you can bet your bottom dollar that it'll be headed to court, costing Oregon even more money.
This is a tax issue with no place in the Oregon constitution. As Kitzhaber noted, if you're going to cut $1 billion from state revenues, you should at least take responsibility for what services get cut. Sizemore's measure just cuts and ducks responsibility. (In fact, the most winning moment of the debate was Kitzhaber's question to Sizemore about this very thing. Sizemore's response was to make a lame joke and then say it wasn't his problem.) Tax issues like this belong in the legislature, where tax cuts and cuts to state services can be balanced.

Oregonians, please vote "No" on Measure 91.

October 9, 2000
Lots of new polling numbers in the presidential race, and I'm not talking about the next-to-meaningless national numbers that the major networks like to throw our way. I'm referring to state-by-state polling, the only numbers that matter thanks to our electoral college system.

The two significant events are this: First, Gore's lead in Florida has shrunk from 8 points to within the 4 point margin of error (46 to 43 Gore). Carrying Florida is important to Gore's chances since without its 25 electoral votes, he'll have to scrap together a number of smaller states to get over the magic 270. Second, and almost as ominously, Gore's 8 point lead in Michigan is now down to 45 to 41 with a 3 point margin of error. That's 18 electoral votes of which he can barely afford to let go.

On the Bush side, he may have seen his substantial 9 point West Virginia led drop to 2. It's hard to tell though, since the poll conducted by the Charleston Gazette has a whopping 6 point margin of error. I'm inclined to guess that West Virginia's 5 votes are still headed in Bush's direction.

So where does all this new math leave us with about 30 days to go? Gore's total drops to 228 and Bush moves up to 156. A lot of this is the inevitable tightening of the race as we come down to the wire. At the same time, it's also clear that this election will not be a landslide by any means. Of the toss-up states (totalling 154 electoral votes), Gore is leading 46-43 in Florida (25 votes), 45-41 in Michigan (18 votes), 45-39 in Minnesota (10 votes), 42-41 in Oregon (7 votes), and 43-38 in Wisconsin (11 votes). If he can eek out 42 points from some combination, he wins.

October 7, 2000
Dave drove up for a couple days of merriment, and we worked on SiteRev.com business, hung out, and played some Carmageddon in the off-hours. Lots of Carmageddon. Too much Carmageddon. Darn thing is addictive.

After his departure, I headed a Saturday Citizen Police Academy covering SWAT (Special Weapons And Tactics) and Bomb Squad. I would not want either of these jobs. Some SWAT highlights:

The Salem PD SWAT team is comprised of 24 members, all of whom have other full-time duties. This is the same size squad as Portland.
The 24 member is broken down into 12 members on the Entry team, 6 members on the Inner Perimeter (IP) team, 4 members on the EMS team, and 2 team leaders. Additionally, 2 to 6 negotiators will come along in hostage situations.
The Entry team is responsible for entering buildings, securing areas, and service warrants (arrest, search, etc.) as appropriate.
The IP team is what's commonly known as the sniper team. They secure the area outside the building. They are marksmen and with the appropriate rifle and scope can shoot 500 yards (5 football fields) in distance and hit a very small target area.
The EMS team is comprised of medics from the Salem Fire Department, all of whom also carry weapons and are fully trained in SWAT techniques and tactics. They go with the entry team.
Because of the high liability carried by the SWAT team (you should see the weapons they carry!), the unit can only be activated by the Chief of Police. They will be called upon to deal with situation where the threat is greater than can be handled by the regular patrol or drug units. This averages about 40 SWAT missions per year, though the trend has been higher because of all the high crimes drug dealing within Marion County. (High level drug dealers carry more powerful weapons.)
The full SWAT team can be rolling in less than 40 minutes; portions of the team can roll even faster if necessary.
Whenever SWAT is activated Life Flight (a medical helicopter) goes on standby. This means it's sitting on the pad, engine on, ready of immediate take off if needed.
SWAT covers a three county area and assists other police departments as necessary. 75 percent of all work is serving drug-related warrants.
The process of becoming a SWAT team member is extensive. It requires 5 years of Salem PD experience, oral and written testing, task testing, peer group review, supervisors' recommendation, physical testing (1.5 miles in 12 minutes, bench 55% of body weight 20x, and 40 situps in a minute), annual psychological testing, and drug and occupational therapy testing.
A SWAT member will spend about 10 percent of his time on SWAT activities compared to other job-related duties. The team trains two weeks a year in addition to other SWAT activities.
The SWAT vehicles are lightly armored, meaning they'll stop handgun and shotgun fire, but high powered rifle fire will go through the metal and keep on going. The department is buying a new armored car soon.
SWAT members carry about 50 to 60 lbs. of equipment with them. This includes bullet-proof helmet and vest, fatigues, gun packs (snipers carry 3 or 4 different rifles), flashlights, and so on.
In the 20 odd years Salem has had a SWAT team, there have been 2 fatalities (though none on the squad) during raids. According to an internal review, there have been 25 situations where lethal force was legal and authorized and the SWAT member(s) chose not to shoot.
Raid planning normally takes 2-3 days as intelligence is gathered on the raid site, plans drawn up, etc.

As a final demonstration, Officer Hayes, the SWAT team leader, took us to the parking lot and set off a flash grenade so we could see one of the devices SWAT sometimes uses to distract the bad guys as they enter a location. The "boom" was easily heard for blocks.

This provided a good lead-in for our next topic, the Bomb Squad. Here's the run down:

Oregon has been the top ten for bomb calls for the last two decades. We've got mining, timber, farming industries all of which use items which could be used in the making of explosives.
Bombs calls to the Salem PD: 43 in 1997, 56 in 1998, 30 in 1999, 30+ so far in 2000.
50 percent of all bomb calls are actually explosives built with intent; 25 percent are recovered explosives (old military ordinance, etc.), and 25 percent are hoaxes. Hoaxes involving schools are more prevalent in the spring time when the weather turns nice.
If a business reports a bomb threat, an officer will instruct the company in how to search for a bomb, but the Bomb Squad won't roll unless there is an actual bomb (or a suspected bomb) for it to deal with.
If a bomb cannot be dealt with without blowing up property, the Bomb Squad will clear the area and blow up the property. Saving life is their foremost concern; property is inconsequential.
The Salem PD has no robot to deal with bombs because the cost is too high ($125,000+). All other major police departments in the Northwest have one. This means officers must approach suspected explosives themselves (though they have a special, 60 lbs. bomb suit which helps to protect them).
Bomb Squad members receive extra pay on a per call basis.
There is a bomber in the Salem area responsible for at least 5 bombings who as of this writing has not been caught. (How reassuring.)

The final demo of the day was the deactivation of a (fake) pipe bomb in a briefcase. This was accomplished by blowing apart the pipe bomb (and consequently the briefcase) faster than the bomb could detonate. Sure enough the pipe bomb was separated from its electrical source (a 9 volt battery), though the neat part was watching small pieces of briefcase litter the air. Neat.

October 5, 2000
Last night's Citizen Police Academy covered Recruiting/Hiring/Training (which I'll abbreviate RHT) and Patrol Tactics and Techniques. The RHT guy was actually an undercover high crimes drug enforcement cop, and a good portion of the time was spent on that material instead of the program. No tragedy. It was more interesting stuff anyway.

Nonetheless, the basics of Salem PD RHT are as follows:

You have to be 21 years old, have a GED or HS diploma or better, and have no felony convictions to be considered.
For an opening in the department, the Salem PD will get 300-400 applicants. Most of these folks will not make it past the first round and shouldn't really even be applying.
The department has 8-9 members who recruit. They spend time at community college job faires primarily. Targeted recruiting—going to schools with criminal justice programs for example—is a big thing.
The state is working to synchronize the hiring testing for police officers, but currently different departments can use different tests.
The Salem PD uses, among others, a video-based test to judge applicants' common sense and moral character. Law enforcement questions are generally not asked, the idea being that the department itself will provide that training.
There is an 800 question psychological test of recruits.
The Monmouth police academy is 16 weeks followed by 5 week of an in-house academy.
New hires have an 18 months probationary period. Many get washed out by deficiencies in report-writing and, believe it or not, Salem geography.

I was saddened to hear of the passing of a college professor of mine, Dr. Bob Fulford. Dr. Fulford was a liberal voice at a conservative university and though I didn't agree with everything he espoused, his was an important presence and viewpoint at the University of Portland.

October 4, 2000
My one-word take on last night's debate: Brutal. Gore looked commanding, calm, confident, knowledgeable, and presidential. Bush looked as good as he's capable of looking, which probably heartened some Republican partisans but won't switch many voters. Not that many voters are likely to switch based on these debates anyway. Barring scandal or complete debate blowup, Al Gore is the next president of the United States.

For a spot-on and right good summary of the night, see Jacob Weisberg's Boston Massacre.

A Gore victory will be an unfortunate turn of events for comedians, because Bush is cannon fodder almost on par with Dan Quayle. My favorite Bushism of the night was about education: "It's a school full of so-called at-risk children. It's how we, unfortunately, label certain children. It means basically they can't learn."

Another good one on the character issue: "There's a huge trust. I see it all the time when people come up to me and say, 'I don't want you to let me down again.'"

For a collection of Bushisms, you'll find that Weisberg has been keeping tabs.

Moving from politics to more personal matters, Erin and I have decided to try to up our monthly mortgage payment by $73. If we can pull it off, this puts us on track to pay off the house in 15 years. Since we're just finishing up year number one, that will leave 14 years to go.

Now I know that many financial professionals (as well as financially astute friends—thanks to those who have written) advise not prepaying on mortgages. The idea here is that one can make more money by investing in the stock market while gaining the tax advantages of the home loan. For many people—most people perhaps—this is sound, solid investment advice.

For whatever reason, however, my personality is such that I have a high aversion to debt. I hate owing money. Can't stand it. Would rather make a guaranteed 7.75 percent by prepaying my mortgage than risk it in the market, though I'm a believer in the power of the market to return a lot more than 7.75 percent.

So this somewhat emotional personality quirk will probably cost me in the long run. But I'm thinking I'll be more than compensated for it in 14 years by the nirvana of never making another rent or mortgage payment. I mean, imagine for a moment what you could do on a monthly basis if you didn't have to pay rent or mortgage? That's a dream that drives me. Well, that, and that I hate the feeling of being in debt.

Speaking of money matters, a big "thank you" to Erin's sister Christine who first turned us on to the news that the California DMV is refunding so-called "smog fees" charged—apparently unconstitutionally—on out of state vehicles. The DMV started issuing refunds within the last 60 days. I downloaded and sent off the appropriate form today. With luck, we'll have $300 back in our hands within a few weeks.

I checked my News Archives entry of May 1, 1997 and found that I said:

Nothing like spending $400 at the California DMV to register my $500 car. Well, nothing except having to spend two and half hours in DMV lines waiting to pay the $400. Maybe there's some kind of class action lawsuit I can file on behalf of everybody in the state of California.

Another "thank you" to whomever took the time to file this lawsuit.

October 3, 2000
Nationwide polls might show tonight's presidential candidates all tied up at 45 percent each, but don't be fooled by this red herring of idiotic reporting. Nationwide polling numbers mean nothing to the final outcome in the electoral college.

What's crucial here are state-by-state poll numbers, and for those of us who have taken the time to add them up, here's the conclusion: If the presidential election were held today, Al Gore would be the next president of the United States. Even if you give Bush every undecided state, Gore still wins. [In this case, an "undecided" state is a state which favors either candidate by less than 6 points.]

But with 30 days left and 3 presidential debates to go, there is plenty of time for opinions to change. As I see it, Bush has a tough assignment in this first, most important debate. Not only must he convince the general public that he has the brains to be president (something heretofore beyond his capacities IMHO), but he also must find a way to convince current Gore supporters that their man isn't as suited to the presidency as he is.

A "tie" will be perceived as a Bush win and raise his stature since the Democrats have messed up the expectations game, and everyone thinks Gore will win the debate. At the same time, I'm not convinced that a "tie" will switch likely Gore voters, and if current polling is correct, Bush loses badly if he can't accomplish this second task.

Tonight's debate should be fascinating.

October 2, 2000
I watched the schizophrenic comedy-drama-action flick The Whole Nine Yards starring Bruce Willis and Matthew Perry. A film devoid of substance and without much in the way of logic, it nonetheless offers several cute comedic bits along with random sprinklings of sex, violence, nudity, and swearing. Perry is fully on board in Chandler Bing mode, and Willis plays himself playing a hit man. Okay if you like that sort of thing, but I find it hard to recommend. Glad Bret rented the video and I got to see it for free.

Following last Friday's 45+ percent drop in Apple stock I convinced myself over the weekend to abandon my long-standing investment guidelines and to throw my lot in with the company I follow daily. Given a 52 week high of around $75 a share and a current price of $24.50 a share, there's really no time like the present to buy Apple Computer Inc. stock. If this isn't buying when there's blood in the streets, then I don't know what is.

Of course to do this I had to sell my holdings of PPG (Pittsburgh Plate Glass), but after three years of dismal returns I'm finally willing to concede that I missed on my call of PPG. I hate taking losses, but I like Apple's long-term share price appreciation prospects much better than PPG's. So, at the end of the day, I'm taking about a $450 loss on PPG and given today's Apple fluctuations I'm probably $550 in the hole over all.

Still, if Apple rebounds to 37 I'm ahead and I think such a thing is feasible in light of the products they have in the pipeline (Mac OS X, faster processors, Quad G4 Towers, G4 PowerBooks, etc.). Even for this quarter the news that prompted the stock price plummet was an announcement of $110 million in revenue versus the $165 million expected. Apple still has $3.8 billion in short-term securities and cash.

Of course, that's not to say that I'm betting the cattle ranch. If this turns out to be a blunder, I'm only playing with about 10 percent of my Roth IRA money—about 1/30^th of our overall portfolio. If such a thing is possible, I'm taking the sane approach to ignoring my own investment advice.

Finally, for what it's worth, these trades were my first online orders, and they appear to have gone off without a hitch. At $12 a trade (my brokerage is TD Waterhouse), the commission schedule beats the heck out of the regular $35 a trade fee, and both trades were very easy to execute. I won't be buying or selling often, but I love the control online trading affords me in managing my portfolio.

Latest update on October 31, 2000
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